The economic tendency survey for April indicates an overall normal mood in the Swedish economy, with the combined barometer indicator marginally falling to 99.0 from 99.6 in the previous month. However, for e-commerce businesses and retailers, it is worth noting a certain division between companies' and consumers' views on the market.
Trade Above Historical Average
Within the business sector, most sectors show a normal mood, but trade is a clear exception. The sector's confidence indicator increased from 102.3 in March to 107.8 in April. This means that the trade companies' view of the situation is assessed as strong.
At the same time, it appears that price plans within trade have risen. According to the National Institute of Economic Research, this is largely due to an adjustment within grocery trade, where a lower proportion of companies now expect to lower their prices in the future. However, there are still more actors within grocery trade who foresee price reductions rather than price increases. Rising price plans are also visible within the manufacturing industry, primarily directed towards the domestic market, where the increase in net total was the largest since measurements began in 1996.
Falling Future Confidence Among Households
Alongside the rise in trade, the barometer shows that consumers have become more hesitant. Households' confidence indicator fell from 95.2 to 91.5 during April, confirming a weaker mood than historically normal.
Households are particularly negative in their assessment of the current state of the Swedish economy compared to twelve months ago. For retail and e-commerce, it is also relevant that households' attitude towards purchases of durable goods, as well as expectations of their own economy in the long term, both lie at levels that are significantly below normal.
The measurement finally shows demographic differences regarding how the situation is perceived. The decline in households' indicator during April was driven exclusively by a more pessimistic view among men, while the mood for women showed a slight increase.