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Trade Barometer September 2026: Increased optimism within Swedish trade

Sofia Larsen, CEO
Warns against over-implementing regulations from Brussels.

Svensk Handel's latest Trade Barometer for September 2026 shows that trading companies see a brightening in the economic climate. Faith in the future is now strengthening across the board, and levels within grocery retail and wholesale trade have not been this high since 2021.

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The future indicator for grocery retail increased during the month by 2.7 units, landing at 104.9, which means that the industry is above the neutral level of 100. The increase is mainly driven by confidence in future sales, where expectations rose to index 114. Wholesale trade also shows an increase of 4.2 units to 103.4, while durable goods retail notes a more modest increase of 0.8 units to 95.6.

Optimism is back within large parts of the trade! We are pleased that faith in the future is increasing in all sub-sectors, and that we can hopefully soon say that the entire trade sees a bright future, says Sofia Larsen, CEO of Svensk Handel.

Expectations for the future and new hires

It is clear that it is the sales expectations that contribute to raising the result for several sectors. Wholesale traders' expectations of sales increased by 5 units to index 110 in September. Durable goods retail does have a combined indicator below the 100 mark, but the survey shows that 33 percent of actors in grocery retail believe in an improvement in the next three months. For wholesale trade, the corresponding proportion of positive companies is 30 percent, while 20 percent of durable goods retailers share the brighter view of the near future. There is also a positive development regarding future personnel needs, where grocery retail's expectations regarding the number of employees increased by 5.1 units to 101.9.

Appeal to future government formers

In connection with the political talks about government formation, Svensk Handel directs concrete appeals to the next political leadership. According to the organization, it is central that the next government focuses on simplifying regulations and growth to strengthen companies' competitiveness.

The Swedish people have given the incoming government a mandate to pursue growth-friendly policies. Therefore, we continue to emphasize the importance of permanently lowering employer contributions, the importance of not abolishing the sick pay deduction, and not making the mistake of over-implementing laws and regulations from Brussels, says Sofia Larsen.

She concludes by adding that the industry is uniquely competitive and that future policy must take this into account in order for the optimism of trading companies to be maintained.

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Editorial Staff
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