In Swedish Trade’s latest report, the wholesale trade’s future indicator increased by 5.5 units to an index of 100.6, which is a higher level than in the corresponding period last year. However, the grocery trade’s indicator decreased by 1.0 units to 103.1. The decline in grocery trade was mainly driven by a lower expectation of the number of employees, which fell to an index of 98.2, and a lower view of sales, which decreased to 112.8. The view of the industry’s profitability remained unchanged at an index of 98.3.
For durable goods trade, a broad decline was noted, where the future indicator fell by 2.1 units to 94.4. The sub-industry’s view of sales decreased by 2.9 units to an index of 98.8, expectations of profitability fell by 1.8 units to 91.7, and the view of the number of employees fell by 1.6 units to 92.7.
The Trade Barometer shows that the recovery is continuing, but at different rates within the various sub-sectors of trade. Wholesale trade sees a clearly brighter future, while durable goods trade is still characterized by great caution. This is in line with the picture of an economy that is gradually improving, but where future confidence in parts of trade and among households is still subdued, says Sofia Larsen, CEO of Svensk Handel.
The latest economic forecasts point to a gradual recovery in 2026, where Sweden’s GDP is expected to grow by around two percent while household consumption strengthens during the year. However, the outcome for July indicates that the development is not linear.
For the recovery to really take hold, policies are needed that strengthen household finances and create confidence in the future. Measures that give people more financial leeway in everyday life also strengthen the conditions for trade. Our industry is one of the largest employers in the business community and predictability is crucial in a tense geopolitical situation where uncertainty risks affecting both prices and growth here in Sweden, says Sofia Larsen.