Swedish Trade Summer Report 2026: Increased Optimism in Retail

Maria Mikkonen, Chief Economist

Over half expect growth.

Swedish Trade's summer report for 2026 points to a turning point in the industry's future confidence. In this year's measurement, 53 percent of retailers state that they expect increased sales volumes during the months of June, July and August, compared to the same period last year. The corresponding figure for 2025 was 37 percent. At the same time, it is noted that the proportion of retailers preparing for decreased volumes has halved, from 22 percent to 11 percent.

The development is largely driven by grocery retail, where 65 percent of operators expect increased volumes this summer. One of the explanations for the volume increases is attributed to the reduction in VAT on food, which came into effect on April 1, 2026, and is expected to have strengthened household purchasing power. In durable goods retail, expectations are more unchanged compared to 2025, with 41 percent of retailers predicting an increase.

Retail companies are entering the summer with significantly greater optimism than a year ago, not least in grocery retail where strengthened purchasing power and halved food VAT contribute to increased demand, says Maria Mikkonen, Chief Economist at Swedish Trade.

Increased Staffing Needs and Midsummer Trade

The higher activity in retail is also reflected in staffing needs. During the summer, the industry is expected to create a total of 26,500 extra jobs. These are distributed across approximately 22,500 positions in retail and around 4,000 in wholesale.

Retail is one of Sweden's most important job creators and one of the largest employers in the business sector. For many young people, a summer job is the first step into the labor market, comments Maria Mikkonen.

A central period for summer sales is Midsummer week, when 89 percent of Swedes state that they plan to celebrate the holiday. Swedish Trade forecasts that additional sales in grocery retail during this week will amount to 1.3 billion Swedish kronor. The amount is unchanged compared to 2025, but due to the price situation, the physical volume of goods is expected to increase by 3 to 5 percent.

The fact that volumes are expected to increase shows that household purchasing power has strengthened compared to a year ago. This creates room for a little extra on the Midsummer table and is a welcome message for both consumers and retailers, says Mikkonen.

What does this mean for e-commerce?

Swedish Trade's summer report is primarily based on data collected via the store network (NielsenIQ Scan Track) and surveys of physical grocery and durable goods retailers. However, for e-commerce companies, it is relevant to put the figures into a historical context.

In 2022 and 2023, e-commerce experienced challenging summer months due to high inflation, interest rate increases and a return to physical stores after the pandemic. However, since 2024, e-commerce has stabilized during the summer months. The e-commerce indicator for 2025 showed that over 70 percent of consumers shopped online during June and July. Turnover for e-commerce then amounted to 15.3 billion Swedish kronor in June (an increase of 4 percent from 2024) and 13.7 billion Swedish kronor in July (an increase of 16 percent).

The strengthened purchasing power of households now observed ahead of the summer of 2026 suggests that the cautious consumer behavior of previous years is decreasing. If the optimism within the physical durable goods and grocery retail sector functions as a general measure of Swedes' willingness to consume, there is room for the e-commerce sector to maintain or strengthen its volumes.

The introduction of the new customs rules on July 1 this year is likely to contribute to a possible positive sales wave for Swedish e-commerce companies.

Editorial Staff