Summer Figures: Fashion Took the Lead
July was a strong month. Clothing sales increased by 6.7 percent compared to the same month last year, and e-commerce is driving the majority of this growth, up 16.2 percent online versus just 4.9 percent in stores. Shoe sales went in slightly different directions, with stores up 2.7 percent but e-commerce down 6.4, demonstrating that the trend isn't entirely consistent across the board.
Perhaps most notably, the premium segment is growing the fastest, up 8.7 percent in July, ahead of low-price and mid-range segments. Sofia Larsen at Swedish Trade summarized it well: "After several tough years, we are now seeing more and more signs that the Swedish economy is heading in the right direction." I agree, and I believe there are several explanations for this.
Quarterly Reports Show How Uneven Things Are
Our editor, Izabella Borowska, has written in recent weeks about several companies that provide a good picture of how fragmented the recovery actually is. Skinome, the Swedish skincare company with premium products, had its first profitable quarter in Q1 this year after growing 40 percent so far in 2026, on top of a turnover of 53.2 million Swedish krona in 2025, where a subscription model with recurring revenue made the difference. This is precisely the type of niche Swedish company that I believe is behind some of the growth in the premium segment we saw in July.
Kjell & Company, which recently released its Q2 report, shows the same trend but from a heavier starting point. Turnover increased by 8.4 percent to 574.3 million Swedish krona and losses were significantly reduced, with operating profit going from minus 14.5 to minus 5.7 million. CEO Sandra Gadd herself pointed to "strong online development" as one of the explanations, along with better inventory availability and more structured work with pricing.
Boozt grew 13 percent in Q2 and almost doubled its EBIT margin to 6.5 percent. But CEO Hermann Haraldsson was clear that growth "is mainly due to the structural changes we have made, not general consumer demand," pointing to a 55 percent wider assortment and an AI-powered shopping assistant rather than a general tailwind. A good reminder that not all good figures mean the same thing.
So, even if we wish it were, it's not a celebration everywhere. Komplett reported in its Q1 that the Swedish online store had exceeded one billion Swedish krona in turnover, which is good, but the group is also struggling with write-downs in Netonnet and Webhallen, where they themselves call it "a cautious stabilization" rather than a turnaround. So, the picture isn't that all e-commerce companies are riding the same wave; rather, it's that the smaller, niche, and digitally focused companies, and the larger ones that have dared to reinvent themselves from the ground up, are currently gaining ground.
Tariffs Changed the Playing Field Mid-Summer
Patrik Mũller recently wrote on Ehandel.se about something that I believe will shape the autumn more than almost anything else: as of July 1 this year, a new EU tariff of 3 euros per product category was introduced for packages from countries outside the EU. The effect was immediate. According to the Swedish Customs Agency, the number of foreign packages plummeted by almost 70 percent in July compared to the same month last year, and Temu and Shein are taking the worst hit because the tariff often increases the total price by around 30 percent on those types of small orders.
This is, as Patrik writes, very good news for Swedish e-commerce companies, especially in the low-price segment that has competed directly with those platforms. And I believe it says something about why fashion e-commerce grew so much in July. When it suddenly becomes more expensive and complicated to order directly from China, more people turn to Swedish and Nordic alternatives instead, preferably those that are locally produced or at least delivered faster from a nearby warehouse. This is precisely the type of nearby warehousing I wrote about a little while ago in the spring, but now it's the tariffs rather than transportation costs that are pushing consumers in that direction.
The Situation Right Now: Calmer, But Not Calm
The Riksbank (Sweden's central bank) held the interest rate steady at 1.75 percent, inflation was low at 0.7 percent in July, and the National Institute of Economic Research revised its growth forecast for 2026 up to 2.4 percent in its August forecast. The Handelsbarometer (trade barometer) has also strengthened since the spring, so household purchasing power appears to be gradually improving.
At the same time, we received a reminder as recently as August 7 that uncertainty is never completely gone. New attacks around the Strait of Hormuz caused oil prices to rise almost four percent in one day, Brent oil traded above $84 a barrel and is already up to almost $92 as we speak. This is the type of event that can impact freight costs with a few days' notice, and it is guaranteed to reappear before the end of the year.
What Awaits Us This Autumn?
If I were to guess: fashion and beauty appear set to continue leading, we recently wrote that those categories top the list of what Swedes plan to buy and that almost half of all merchandise purchases are expected to be made online during the third quarter. The tariff effect is also likely to persist and may even be reinforced as more consumers get used to shopping Swedish and Nordic instead of from Asia, benefiting traders who can offer fast delivery and local warehousing, and niche companies. Interest rates will likely remain where they are for the next few months, but the National Institute of Economic Research's warning of an increase later this year is worth keeping an eye on, as if it occurs too early it could dampen Christmas shopping. The government's budget for 2027, which is usually presented in September but is likely to be delayed due to the election year, will be a wildcard; further stimulus could add to the purchasing power that is already on the way. And then there's the Strait of Hormuz, which I suspect will give us at least one unpleasant headline before we are fully into autumn. In a few weeks, I will be traveling to Shoptalk in Nashville to assess where the American e-commerce market stands and what trends are on their way here. I will follow up with a report from there.
So, in which direction are we heading? Right now, in the direction we most want to see, upwards, with fashion and e-commerce in the lead. But anyone who bases their autumn planning on everything going smoothly risks doing themselves a disservice. Hold tightly to nearby warehousing, keep an eye on tariffs and the outside world, and be agile, because those are still the things that will determine whether the step forward becomes lasting this time.