The global security situation, with a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, is currently impacting the energy market and creating uncertainty. For Sweden, this development means that GDP is growing at a slower pace than previously calculated. The growth forecast for 2026 is being revised down from 2.8 percent to 2.3 percent.
At the same time, the forecast for the labor market is being adjusted. Unemployment is falling at a slightly slower rate than expected and is estimated to be 8.5 percent this year, compared to the previous forecast of 8.4 percent.
However, there are stabilizing factors for household purchasing power. Swedish inflation is currently low, and the forecast for CPIF inflation in 2026 remains at 1.2 percent. According to the Ministry of Finance, rapidly rising fuel prices have been offset by lower prices for other goods.
Limited Disruptions in Supply Chains
For e-commerce businesses that rely on logistics and transport, it is noted that the Swedish economy is currently primarily affected by higher prices and not by actual supply restrictions. Swedish supplies of both diesel and gasoline are considered stable.
Compared to several other countries in Europe, Sweden has a relatively favorable starting position. Oil and natural gas account for only a small part of the Swedish energy mix, and sound public finances combined with low inflation give the state economic room for maneuver.
The government is now preparing measures to dampen the economic effects for both households and businesses. As part of this management, a tax increase freeze is also being communicated.
Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson comments on the economic situation:
The Iran war has contributed to great uncertainty in the global economy and created supply disruptions. This has effects on the Swedish economy, although we have a better starting position than many other countries thanks to our low national debt and our relatively low dependence on fossil energy. So far, growth has lost some momentum, but the Swedish economy is still expected to have higher growth in 2026 than both the USA and the euro area average. We are prepared to take further measures to support the economy if the situation worsens.