The future indicator lands on 99.3 for grocery retail, 90.9 for durable goods retail, and 93.7 for wholesale trade. All values are thus below the neutral level of 100. The largest decline is noted in wholesale trade, where the indicator falls by 4.4 units. This decline is largely driven by reduced expectations for both profitability and sales.
Durable goods retail remains the sub-sector that shows the weakest confidence in the future. According to the survey, 45 percent of retailers in this segment expect a deterioration in the general situation over the next three months.
The energy crisis is noticeable here and now, not least for households that are dependent on the car in everyday life and for goods transports to Swedish stores. When costs rise, the first thing people cut back on is things they don't need, and that hits durable goods retail directly, says Sofia Larsen, CEO of Swedish Trade Federation.
Developments in the outside world risk leading to further cost increases. The situation in the Middle East and its impact on supply chains is highlighted as a factor that could affect pricing going forward.
Without being alarmist, we are concerned about how the situation in the Strait of Hormuz affects trade in the long run. We are particularly worried about consumers' purchasing power, but it is not unreasonable to assume that price increases are to be expected if the conflict is prolonged. The government must ensure that the effects on households and businesses are mitigated, says Sofia Larsen.
Grocery retail is the segment that is best resisting the development, despite a decrease of 0.4 units in the future indicator during April. Expectations for profitability are strengthened by 2.1 units to an index of 94, while companies' view of the need for the number of employees is declining.
Grocery retail is holding up better than other sub-sectors, not least due to the reduced VAT on food, which can provide some support to sales. But it is an uncertain situation, where both energy prices and, as previously mentioned, developments in the outside world affect costs at several levels, concludes Sofia Larsen.