All three sub-sectors show a negative trend compared to the previous month. The decline is primarily driven by reduced sales expectations, with durable goods retail accounting for the largest drop, down 9.8 units to an index of 94.3. Sales expectations for grocery retail and wholesale trade also decreased during the period.
The development of the forward indicator per sub-sector in March:
- Grocery Retail: Index landed at 99.7, a decrease of 1.3 units.
- Durable Goods Retail: Index fell to 91.7, a decrease of 7.1 units.
- Wholesale Trade: Index was noted at 98, corresponding to a decrease of 4 units.
Regarding expectations for profitability, the indicators are down across the board. Grocery retail fell by 0.9 units (index 91.8), durable goods retail by 6.9 units (index 90.7) and wholesale trade by 4.5 units (index 96.6).
Increased Costs and Hesitant Consumers
The report highlights that the uncertain global situation could lead to increased global tensions, which in turn risks affecting prices for oil and transport. For Swedish retail, this means a risk of rising costs and a more hesitant market.
Sofia Larsen, CEO of Svensk Handel, states that the retail sector is affected by the macroeconomic situation:
There is no doubt that this is a clear setback. Although the levels are still slightly higher than last year, uncertainty has once again taken a firm grip on retail, and many are now entering spring with a considerably more cautious view of the future.
She also emphasizes the risks ahead regarding margins and consumer behavior:
We are seeing how the uncertain global situation affects retail. If transport and fuel costs rise, it could put further pressure on margins. More and more forecasters are now also talking about interest rate hikes from the Riksbank. This would, of course, mean that households will be more cautious in their consumption, which will negatively affect retail.